27.4.12

Forecasting turn-out on next May Day?

I have tried to do a bit of "forecasting" with my model for turn-out at May Day demonstrations (based in my "Public Choice" article "It's the weather, stupid! Individual participation in collective May Day demonstrations").  A simplified model including

  • Average of min./max. temperatures (according to DMI's weather forecast, as of Friday, for Tuesday min. 6 degrees Celsius, max. 18 degrees = average 12 degrees)
  • Bandwagon (last year's no. of participants = 55,000)
  • Colour of government (not a "bourgeois" government, i.e. a dummy = 0)
  • Post-Soviet collapse (dummy = 1)
Using these four variables, we get a forecast of 81,782 demonstrators in Copenhagen's Fælledparken (standard error of estimate: 42,000).  Using

10.4.12

Do Danish voters get the government a majority prefer?

I have a new working paper out (in a preliminary version), dealing with "election inversions" in Danish elections/government formations. That is: Do Danish voters get the government(-coalition) a majority wants? One would think so, but I show that there are (at least) two types of voting paradoxes that may manifest themselves and lead to election inversions, where a majority of the voters vote for parties supporting one government, but where the other side wins. I show that