Amerikansk præsidentvalg 2012: Vægtet, dagligt gennemsnit af "tracking polls" af "sandsynlige vælgere"

Dagens§ tal:4.-5.11.: Obama: 49,21%; Romney: 48,73% (-0,5%) [N = 7.257. Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Gallup; Rasmussen; TIPP]
Tidligere datoer§:

• 3.11.: Obama: 49,00%; Romney: 48,42%% (-0,6%) [N = 3.569.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 2.11.: Obama: 48,50%; Romney: 48,50%% (+0,0%) [N = 2.985.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 1.11.: Obama: 48,00%; Romney: 48,51% (+0,5%) [N = 3.035.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 31.10.: Obama: 47,93%; Romney: 48,54% (+0,6%) [N = 2.793.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 30.10.: Obama: 47,92%; Romney: 49,00% (+1,1%) [N = 2.788.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 29.10.: Obama: 47,46%; Romney: 49,00% (+1,5%) [N = 2.771.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Rasmussen]

• 28.10.: Obama: 46,97%; Romney: 49,99% (+3,0%) [N = 5.459.  Kilder: ABC News/Washington Post; Gallup; Rasmussen]

Too close to call: Growth and the cost of ruling in US presidential elections, with an application to the 2012 election

I have finally written-up a small research note trying to collect together the little model for the explanation of outcomes of US presidential elections that I have played around with for years.  What could be more relevant than do so on the eve of the 2012 election?  At this risk of being proven totally wrong, here is the title and abstract and link to files for download:

Too close to call: Growth and the cost of ruling in US presidential elections, with an application to the 2012 election

The note briefly outlines a new model for the explanation of US presidential elections, founded on (a) recent economic growth and (b) a measure of what may be called “’the cost of ruling”.  The former is based in changes in real disposable income for the period following a mid-term election, while the latter combines factors of incumbency and terms-in-office.  The model is applied to data from the US presidential elections 1932-2008 and has considerable explanatory power for the variation in the incumbent party’s candidate’s share of the two-party vote (R²=0.74).  The model is controlled against a number of other frequent explanations and is found to be quite robust.  When augmented with approval ratings for incumbent presidents, the explanatory power increases to 83 pct. and only incorrectly calls one of the last 15 US presidential elections.  Applied to the 2012 election as a forecasting model the prediction is that President Obama will win 49,6 pct. of

Amerikansk valgsæson

Det er--hvis nogen skulle være i tvivl--igen amerikansk valgår, og derfor en sæson, hvor der er tryk på for mit vedkommende.

På det seneste har jeg blogget

• om nomineringen af Paul Ryan som Republikansk vicepræsidentkandidat
• om hvorvidt denne nominering har betydet noget for Romneys meningsmålinger
• om dårlig dansk research af en dansk TV-station

Jeg har også været forbi Danmarks Radio for at drøfte

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