tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47703396272908560902024-03-14T14:27:05.089+01:00Peter Kurrild-KlitgaardHomepage & blog for Peter Kurrild-KlitgaardPeter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.comBlogger138125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-6777274732231937592023-12-04T20:51:00.015+01:002023-12-10T21:07:41.966+01:00Demokratiets vilkårlighed<p><!--[if !mso]>
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</p><p align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: "Palatino Linotype",serif; font-size: 14pt; mso-ansi-language: DA; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: DA; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-ligatures: none;">
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<p><span style="font-family: inherit;">Jeg har en ny artikel, men om et <a href="https://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.com/search/label/social%20choice">"gammelt" emne</a>: Den empiriske forekomst af social choice-teoris "valgparadokser". Denne gang med to tidligere studerende, Emily Duminski og Søren Nikolai Horndrup, og i<i><a href="https://tidsskrift.dk/okonomi-og-politik/article/view/141929/185653"> Økonomi & Politik</a></i>. Her er sammendraget:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Tabel - Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
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<![endif]--><i><span style="font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: DA; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: DA;">"I et demokratisk system kan vælgerpræferencer
aggregeres til en samlet kollektiv præference på et utal af forskellige måder,
hvorefter en specifik aggregeringsmetode fordeler det samlede antal mandater
mellem partierne. Hvis metoden producerer resultater, som divergerer fra
vælgernes underliggende præferencer, opstår der såkaldte valgparadokser. De
kendes fra flertalsvalgsystemer (f.eks. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>amerikanske og britiske valg), men det er
generelt overset, at de også kan forekomme under forholdstalsvalg. Ved brug af
data fra valgundersøgelserne i.f.m. folketingsvalgene 2007, 2011 og 2015
analyseres den mulige empiriske forekomst af fire teoretisk udledte
valgparadokser fra social choice teori. Vi viser, at alle fire valgparadokser
forekommer empirisk. Dermed sættes der spørgsmålstegn ved, i hvilket omfang
folketingsvalgs udfald kan udlægges som en afspejling af folkets vilje."</span></i></span><span style="font-family: trebuchet;"><i><br /></i></span><i><span style="font-family: georgia;"><br /></span></i><br /></p>Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-29891626507565169642023-08-01T10:38:00.000+02:002023-12-10T20:59:07.659+01:00Træffetid / Office hoursKære studerende, kolleger, journalister m.fl.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">Jeg har "træffetid" hver torsdag mellem 15.30 og 16.30.</div><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Bedste hilsner,</span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard</span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">*******************************************</span></div>
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<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Dear students, colleagues, journalists et al.,</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I have "office hours" every Thursday between 15.30 and 16.30.<br /><br />Best wishes,</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-bidi; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard</span></div>
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</span></div>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-84980500949969561772021-05-12T12:10:00.003+02:002021-05-12T13:51:00.115+02:00The costs and benefits of democratic deliberation<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRVlysIZ7vtS063cXN2Q5AxTWOljuRdVWDLrVOI2JyXtSRuJyAUoc-Jy1hlAwOnlmgO9CEPXXDjZ8fHUHj9UWSb-nq9XDWJjcYhBGFG-l2SI1GYeH01VoDM63yGYdrXtYfJ_dCRFuBU1Ar/s431/Buridans+Ass_Deliberations_of_Congress_ca+1900.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="431" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiRVlysIZ7vtS063cXN2Q5AxTWOljuRdVWDLrVOI2JyXtSRuJyAUoc-Jy1hlAwOnlmgO9CEPXXDjZ8fHUHj9UWSb-nq9XDWJjcYhBGFG-l2SI1GYeH01VoDM63yGYdrXtYfJ_dCRFuBU1Ar/s320/Buridans+Ass_Deliberations_of_Congress_ca+1900.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><p>Do you know the old <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buridan%27s_ass">fable of Buridan's Ass</a>? Where a donkey dies because it cannot decide whether to drink first or eat first.</p><p><span class="d2edcug0 hpfvmrgz qv66sw1b c1et5uql lr9zc1uh a8c37x1j keod5gw0 nxhoafnm aigsh9s9 d3f4x2em fe6kdd0r mau55g9w c8b282yb iv3no6db gfeo3gy3 a3bd9o3v knj5qynh oo9gr5id hzawbc8m" dir="auto"></span></p><div class="kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">On that note: I have a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10602-021-09329-7">new research article</a> out in <i>Constitutional Political Economy</i>, co-authored with economist Urs Steiner Brandt. We take on the issue of "democratic deliberation" and ask: When is too much of a good thing too much? Through a mathematical model and some simulations, we demonstrate that even in relatively small groups the costs of spending more time deliberating / getting more people on board may actually exceed the benefits of doing so. At some point it is better to stop deliberating and making a decision.</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://media.springernature.com/lw150/springer-static/cover/journal/10602/30/1.jpg?as=jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="229" data-original-width="150" src="https://media.springernature.com/lw150/springer-static/cover/journal/10602/30/1.jpg?as=jpg" /></a></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;">Here is the abstract:</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><br /></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"></div></div><p></p><blockquote><p><span class="d2edcug0 hpfvmrgz qv66sw1b c1et5uql lr9zc1uh a8c37x1j keod5gw0 nxhoafnm aigsh9s9 d3f4x2em fe6kdd0r mau55g9w c8b282yb iv3no6db gfeo3gy3 a3bd9o3v knj5qynh oo9gr5id hzawbc8m" dir="auto"></span></p><div class="kvgmc6g5 cxmmr5t8 oygrvhab hcukyx3x c1et5uql ii04i59q"><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><i>"Deliberation may increase the quality of decisions but also necessarily
takes time and effort and hence will have costs. But proponents of
deliberative democracy as an attractive or superior method for making
decisions almost all focus on presumed benefits while in practice
ignoring the costs associated with investing time and resources in the
process of deliberation. We show that the cost side significantly
influences the performance of the deliberative process. Through a number
of simulations, we demonstrate that there must be a certain point
beyond which the costs of deliberating will outweigh the potential
benefits. Since this type of processes invariably will be time
consuming, especially when the convergence of the participants towards a
common goal is slow, conditions are derived where the deliberative
process performs relatively well or relatively poorly, both as concerns
the probability of reaching an agreement and in the net benefits to the
participants. This is especially the case when the number of
participants increase."</i></div></div><p></p><p> </p></blockquote><p></p>Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-89982469775207625262020-03-01T16:24:00.000+01:002020-04-29T20:04:13.861+02:00My Erdös Number ... and my (sort of) Bacon Number<div data-en-clipboard="true" data-pm-slice="0 1 []">
(revised)<br />
<br /></div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Academics are nerdy. So, I <a href="https://oakland.edu/enp/compute/" rev="en_rl_none">calculated</a> my so-called "<i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s_number" rev="en_rl_none">Erdös Number</a></i>", named after mathematician <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Erd%C5%91s" rev="en_rl_none">Paul Erdös</a>--i.e. the number of "collaborative steps" between an academic and Erdös. Someone who co-authored with Erdös has a number 1, while someone who co-authored with that author has a value of 2, etc., etc., etc. Mine must be (at most) five (5). Because ... </div>
<ol>
</ol>
<ul>
<li><div>
I edited and co-authored the 2006-edition of Gordon Tullock's <i><a href="https://iea.org.uk/publications/research/the-vote-motive" rev="en_rl_none">"The Vote Motive"</a></i>, to which my distinguished friend, Prof. <a href="http://www.michaelmunger.com/" target="_blank">Michael Munger</a> (Duke) contributed. (I have also co-edited the journal <i>Public Choice</i> together with Munger as well as guest edited a <a href="https://link.springer.com/journal/11127/158/3" rev="en_rl_none">special issue</a> to which he contributed, and <a href="https://link.springer.com/journal/11127/143/3" rev="en_rl_none">vice versa</a>, and co-authored editorial <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-007-9164-y" rev="en_rl_none">announcements</a>.) </div>
</li>
<li><div>
Munger has co-authored works with political scientist John H. Aldrich (Duke). </div>
</li>
<li><div>
Aldrich co-authored with political scientist Richard D. McKelvey (C.I.T.).</div>
</li>
<li>McKelvey co-authored with mathematician Craig A. Tovey (Georgia Tech).</li>
<li>Tovey co-authored with ... <a href="https://mathscinet-ams-org.huaryu.kl.oakland.edu/mathscinet/search/author.html?mrauthid=189017" rev="en_rl_none"><span style="color: #673398;">Paul Erdős</span></a></li>
</ul>
<div>
</div>
<div>
</div>
<div>
Unfortunately, given that I am not much of a movie star I have not been able to find a movie connection to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kevin_Bacon" rev="en_rl_none">Kevin Bacon</a> and hence my "degrees of separation from Bacon". This counts people who appeared on film with someone who has ..., etc. The underlying hypothesis is that everyone in Hollywood is at most <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Degrees_of_Kevin_Bacon" target="_blank">six degrees of separation away from Kevin Bacon</a>.<br />
However ...<br />
<ol>
</ol>
<ul>
<li>I have been interviewed on national TV (both <i>TV-Avisen</i> [DR1] and <i>Deadline</i> [DR2]) by my (subsequent) friend, journalist <a href="https://da.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paula_Larrain" target="_blank">Paula Larrain</a>.</li>
<li>Paula <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm1390288/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0" target="_blank">played </a>herself/a TV anchor in the original <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0826760/fullcredits?ref_=tt_cl_sm#cast" target="_blank"><i>Forbrydelsen</i></a>, which featured actor <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0110334/?ref_=ttfc_fc_cl_t22" target="_blank">Nicolas Bro</a>.</li>
<li>Bro was in Trier's <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1937390/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_33" target="_blank"><i>Nymphomaniac</i></a> together with <a href="https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000225/?ref_=ttfc_fc_cl_t5" target="_blank">Christian Slater</a>.</li>
<li>Slater was in <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0113870/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_3" target="_blank"><i>Murder in The First</i></a> with ... <a href="https://oracleofbacon.org/" target="_blank">Kevin Bacon</a>.</li>
</ul>
<ol>
</ol>
<br />
So, I seem to have an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s%E2%80%93Bacon_number" rev="en_rl_none">Erdös-Bacon Number</a> of 9. Sort of.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
PS. Thanks to Professor Emeritus Jerrold W. Grossman, Dept. of Mathematics and Statistics at Oakland University.<br />
PPS. And to Munger who found a shorter Erdös path than the one I first noticed. </div>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-44613944797422542062020-01-01T13:10:00.001+01:002021-03-01T13:38:32.264+01:00Ny bog: "Demokrati i totalstaten"Center for Politiske Studier (CEPOS) har udgivet en bog af mig: <i>Demokrati i Totalstaten</i>. Den blev i december præsenteret ved et <a href="https://cepos.dk/passed-events-collection/boglancering-demokrati-i-totalstaten/" target="_blank">debatmøde</a>, hvor fhv. justits-, forsknings-, udviklings- og integrationsminister Søren Pind (der har skrevet et venligt "cover-blurb") var med til at diskutere bogens tema.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ68ivWJC6SHsmOz9B1N9CsZGgq6Icn2ZwF09k8nuNQOfRH1m5L1PsxyjAUrU3X9B5Tt1gUkcGRUpCu_QsXQvCvQbhg8hFSX_r6whn3DJdrdQeKKOuldgfZnECHfbBlSsFwEp6NIhWgXPk/s1600/boglancering_2.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="669" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQ68ivWJC6SHsmOz9B1N9CsZGgq6Icn2ZwF09k8nuNQOfRH1m5L1PsxyjAUrU3X9B5Tt1gUkcGRUpCu_QsXQvCvQbhg8hFSX_r6whn3DJdrdQeKKOuldgfZnECHfbBlSsFwEp6NIhWgXPk/s320/boglancering_2.jpg" width="300" /></a></div>
<br />
Bogen kan købes <a href="https://rosendahlsonline.dk/categorynav.aspx?catid=872" target="_blank">her</a>. <br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
+++ </div>
<br />
<b>Update</b>: **** Bogen har fået venlige ord med på vejen af historikeren Christian E. Skov, der gav den fire stjerner hos <a href="https://www.altinget.dk/artikel/anmeldelse-ny-debatbog-er-praeget-af-en-sund-mistillid-til-demokratiet" target="_blank">Altinget</a>:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard har gennem mange år – rigtig mange år – været
en af de centrale skikkelser i den borgerlige idédebat, kendt både som
ung liberalkonservativ aktivist i 80’erne, professor i statskundskab og
klummeskribent.<br />
Bogen 'Demokrati i totalstaten', som Kurrild-Klitgaard selv har redigeret, samler nogle af de bedste af disse.<br />
Lad os tage vurderingen før substansen.<br />
<br />
Når 'Demokrati i totalstaten' er en god bog, skyldes det ikke kun det
åbenlyse, at Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard skriver godt. Han er en af de få,
der nemt, forståeligt – og tilpas polemisk – kan gøre rede for politiske
og ideologiske sammenhænge og løfte debatten. Det skyldes også den
stærke tematiske sammenhæng klummerne i mellem.<br />
De belyser hver for sig og samlet et emne, der står centralt i den
liberale samfundskritik i det hele taget: spørgsmålet om statsapparatets
uhæmmede vækst og invasive adfærd under demokratiet; altså spørgsmålet
om, hvordan et system, der er funderet på frihed og anerkendelse af
visse grundlæggende frihedsrettigheder, alligevel snapper stadig større
lunser af denne frihed.<br />
Kurrild-Klitgaard skriver i indledningen: ”vores moderne altomfattende
demokrati med allestedsnærværende velfærdsstat [er] i virkeligheden…
baseret på en række præmisser, som i bedste fald ikke alle sammen kan
opfyldes hele tiden, og som i værste fald ikke blot slet ikke kan
opfyldes, men hvis efterstræbelse decideret truer med at trække tæppet
væk under ting, som de fleste ellers sætter pris på: frihed, retssamfund
og velstand.”"</blockquote>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
+++ </div>
<br />
<b>Update II</b>: Bogen har også fået venlige ord med på vejen af politologen Morten Jarlbæk Pedersen, der har <a href="https://aarsskriftet-critique.dk/2020/04/kurrild-klitgaard-velfaerdsstat-morten-jarlbaek-public-choice/" target="_blank">anmeldt den</a> til <i>Replique</i> (under det konservative <i>Årsskriftet Critique</i>):<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"Få mennesker i det borgerlige Danmark er mere velkendte end professor i
statskundskab Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard. Han har i årevis været garant for
gode, borgerlige ord i alverdens avisklummer, debatindlæg og andet
godt. [...] </blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard har begået en velskrevet, lettilgængelig og sine
steder uhyre underholdende bog. Der er trods alt tale om en samling af
avisklummer og -indlæg, hvis ypperste kvalitet jo netop skal være at
formidle et enkelt budskab på en prægnant, præcis og polemisk måde. Og
det er en disciplin, som den gode Kurrild-Klitgaard efterhånden har
betydelig erfaring udi. Bogen består af otte kapitler, der hver især
består af et antal tidligere udgivne klummer eller indlæg. Kapitlerne er
tematiske – ikke kronologiske – og temaerne er tro mod forfatterens
årelange vendetta mod overregulering, kvælende velfærd og almindelig
uvidenhed. At på den måde være skrevet i små bidder er på sæt og vis én
af bogens store forcer. Den er ikke tung at danse med, og den kan nemt
spises i mindre bidder – hvilket denne pendlerramte anmelder i øvrigt er
ganske tilfreds med – men dette til trods, føler man sig samtidig
betydelig klogere efter at have læst bogen. </blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Dette sidste hænger sammen med, at Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard tilhører en
noget sjældent art af professorer: Man er nemlig ikke i tvivl om, at
klummerne i bogen er skrevet både provokatorisk og båret frem af en
stærk holdning til tingenes almindelige tilstand. Men man er samtidig
heller ikke tvivl om, at Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard ikke bare skriver om
det, der føles rart i mavsen. Langt størstedelen af indlæggene, der er
medtaget i bogen, er anskuelsesundervisning i forskningsformidling, og i
flere tilfælde refererer forfatteren direkte til udvalgte teorier eller
teoretikere – selv om der er tale om tekster til dagbladene."</blockquote>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
+++ </div>
<br />
<b>Update III</b>: **** Sognepræst Kristian Østergaard har anmeldt bogen i <i>Kristeligt Dagblad</i> ("Opsang til velfærdsjunkier og levebrødspolitikere", 19.V.2020). Udover nogle (passende) kritiske ord om den begrænsede værdi af at genoptrykke ældre debatindlæg, får den også disse ord med på vejen:<br />
<br />
<div id="p8">
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
"En gennemgående kritik i bogen er, at formynderstatens omsorg
for borgerne går hånd i hånd med en trang til at bestemme, hvad der
også er bedst for dem. Eller jo mere stat, vi får, jo bedre er det for
os. Og sådan opstår der da en totalstat, der fordeler de penge, vi
tjener, og forvalter vores liv fra fødsel til død.</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Hvordan
er det kommet så vidt? Statskundskabsprofessoren svarer, at " denne
latente ' autoritære fristelse' ligger nok i os alle", og så føjer han
sarkastisk til: " Vi ved alle hver især, hvad vi synes, der er godt for
os selv og vore familier - så hvorfor skulle vi ikke også vide, hvad der
er bedst for andre?".</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
Som Kurrild-Klitgaard påpeger, resulterer dette i, at politikerne i stigende omfang opfatter skatteindtægterne som deres personlige ejendom.</blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
[...] Forfatteren
langer således både ud efter borgere og politikere i denne
artikelsamling, som vitterlig rummer knivskarpe pointer og læseværdige
argumenter [...] Kurrild-Klitgaards harmfulde protest mod politikernes generøse omgang med offentlige
midler, når det gælder egne vederlag, [er] kun taget til i aktualitet og
berettigelse."</blockquote><p> </p><div style="text-align: center;">
+++ </div>
<br />
<b>Update IV</b>: Kaj Mieritz har omtalt bogen hos <a href="https://indblik.net/moderne-faesteboender-i-et-maternalistisk-kollektiv/"><i>Indblik</i></a> (""Moderne fæstebønder i et maternalistisk kollektiv")<br /><p> </p>
</div>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-34105829224484832842019-11-17T14:03:00.002+01:002019-11-17T14:06:37.575+01:00Forskellen på "impeachment" og "rigsretssag"Danske medier har i mange år--i hvert fald siden Clinton sidst i 1990erne--gladeligt refereret til det amerikanske fænomen med "impeachment" og efterfølgende "senate trial" m.h.p. "removal from office" som værende en rigsretssag.<br />
Det sidste er et dansk begreb, der har stort set ingen lighed med det amerikanske fænomen. Her er min "... for dummies"-forklaring:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo4GbuASNQwX-TzA4_dEw6rQK0BJMREDFmlnMZZAPOvExdYvTrNzSD56BNsJ609DJrdBNE3oVDtGtGejHPCyFoRNdWvH6BeiZbBYfLyfdsm31qNsTQp7fvxqLflUXevDPrWBIL3_qH0P1A/s1600/Impeachment+vs+rigsretssag_pkk_final.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="641" data-original-width="867" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo4GbuASNQwX-TzA4_dEw6rQK0BJMREDFmlnMZZAPOvExdYvTrNzSD56BNsJ609DJrdBNE3oVDtGtGejHPCyFoRNdWvH6BeiZbBYfLyfdsm31qNsTQp7fvxqLflUXevDPrWBIL3_qH0P1A/s400/Impeachment+vs+rigsretssag_pkk_final.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-86022729427527319672019-11-01T14:14:00.000+01:002019-11-17T14:15:18.568+01:00Temanummer af "Samfundsøkonomen" om amerikansk politik under TrumpJeg har redigeret et temanummer af <i>Samfundsøkonomen</i> om "Trumps Amerika" med bidrag fra bl.a. Mirco Reimer-Elster (Firenze), Christian Bjørnskov (Aarhus), Otto Brøns-Petersen (CEPOS), samt Frederik G. Hjorth, Birthe Hansen og jeg selv (København).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUe2VBNZFz1eDhIIQjVXind6Ycyn_q_yrp_2ZGESrWULkS3ZnEzNnosXuwZKCVMWhTodCR5qI07FjNM1XgjJhCs0s0X3IvRlDb0_sE1IglcaIcAXHglV-4ps2LcSiQpqMcnckemZNU5Y5Z/s1600/Samfunds%25C3%25B8konomen_2019_3_forside.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="755" data-original-width="704" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUe2VBNZFz1eDhIIQjVXind6Ycyn_q_yrp_2ZGESrWULkS3ZnEzNnosXuwZKCVMWhTodCR5qI07FjNM1XgjJhCs0s0X3IvRlDb0_sE1IglcaIcAXHglV-4ps2LcSiQpqMcnckemZNU5Y5Z/s400/Samfunds%25C3%25B8konomen_2019_3_forside.png" width="372" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Hele nummeret kan downloades som pdf <a href="https://www.djoef-forlag.dk/openaccess/samf/full/SamfundsOkonomen_3_2019.pdf" target="_blank">her</a>.Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-50461295389840031702018-12-30T21:08:00.000+01:002019-01-02T21:10:23.764+01:00Når den offentlige mening er meningsløsUdover <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268017300782" target="_blank">min nylige artikel i <i>European Journal of Political Economy</i> </a>om valgparadokser i.f.m. USA-præsidentvalget i 2016 og min artikel i <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-public-choice-volume-1-9780190469733?cc=us&lang=en&" target="_blank"><i>Oxford Handbook of Public Choice</i></a> om social choice teori i.f.m. den socialdemokratiske velfærdsstat, har jeg fornylig berørt social choice teori i et <a href="https://www.berlingske.dk/kommentatorer/naar-den-offentlige-mening-er-meningsloes" target="_blank">debatindlæg</a> om Brexit i <i>Berlingske</i>. Her er et klip:<br /><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54">"Vi er vant til at
tænke på demokrati som, at flertallet bestemmer. Vi kan faktisk slet
ikke forestille os et demokrati, der er betegnelsen værdig, hvor det
ikke er tilfældet.<br />
Problemet er blot, at der ikke altid er en
»folkevilje« et sted derude. For så snart mere end to mennesker skal
vælge mellem mere end to alternativer, kan det være, at selve
afstemningsformen bliver afgørende for udfaldet – eller at der slet ikke
findes noget, som ikke er mindre foretrukket end noget andet.<br />
<span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"></span></span><br /><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"></span><br />
Sådanne fænomener har <a data-lpurl="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_paradox" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Condorcet_paradox" target="_blank">matematikere studeret i 250 år.</a>
De kalder den slags et »cyklisk flertal«: Et flertal foretrækker A
fremfor B. Et andet flertal vil have B fremfor C. Et tredje flertal
foretrækker C fremfor A. Altså lidt ligesom sten slår saks, saks slår
papir, og papir slår sten.</span></blockquote>
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"></span><br />
Hva’ ba’? Pointen
kan illustreres med dette eksempel: Tre rygere sidder om et stort rundt
bord og skal sammen dele et askebæger. Uanset hvor på bordet
askebægeret stilles, vil der altid være et andet sted, som to af de tre
vil foretrække mere end der, hvor askebægeret står. Altid. Selv hvis det
står lige midt på bordet.</span></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"></span> [... ]</span><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54"><span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54">Den britiske
Brexit-proces, der i disse uger synes næsten kaotisk, illustrerer
problemet. Da briterne i 2016 stemte »leave« var det med et relativt
beskedent flertal fremfor »remain«. Men hver af de to sider består reelt
af flere undergrupper, herunder nogle der er utilfredse med EU, men som
hverken ønsker, at Storbritannien skal kappe alle relationer til
kontinentet, eller at tingene skal forblive, som de var. Men ved
afstemningen måtte mange af disse så, fordi de kun fik to alternativer,
vælge deres næstmest foretrukne.</span><br />
</span></blockquote>
<blockquote>
<span id="11c785143bc205231bde993169a7def433007f54">Det kan man se antydninger af i <a data-lpurl="http://econbeh.blogspot.com/2017/03/brexit-and-condorcet-paradox.html" href="http://econbeh.blogspot.com/2017/03/brexit-and-condorcet-paradox.html" target="_blank">mange meningsmålinger</a>,
der medtager både »hård Brexit«, »blød Brexit« og fortsat uændret
EU-medlemskab: Her er der aldrig et absolut flertal (mere end 50 pct.)
bag nogle af de tre muligheder. <a data-lpurl="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-condorcet/" href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/brexit-condorcet/" target="_blank">Enkelte meningsmålinger</a>
antyder også, at det kan være tæt på en »folkevilje«, hvor et flertal
foretrækker en »hård Brexit« fremfor fortsat EU-medlemskab, og dette
mere end Mays aftale, og denne fremfor »hård Brexit«. Eller hvor et
flertal vil have Mays aftale frem for uændret medlemskab og dette frem
for »hård Brexit«, men måske dette frem for Mays aftale. Kun få procent
af stemmerne skal flyttes den ene eller anden vej for at give ganske
forskellige resultater."</span></blockquote>
<br />Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-48766999061535829352018-11-13T21:27:00.001+01:002018-11-14T00:28:08.398+01:00A couple of new papers out: Danish political system + social democracy/public choiceI have a couple of new papers coming out in anthologies. One is with my good colleague, Karina Kosiara-Pedersen, "Change and stability in the Danish party system", in M. Lisi (ed.): <i><a href="https://www.routledge.com/Party-System-Change-the-European-Crisis-and-the-State-of-Democracy/Lisi/p/book/9781138550087" target="_blank">Party system change, the European crisis and the state of democracy</a>.</i> London; N.Y.: Routledge, 2018, p<span class="pages">p. 63-79</span> (Routledge Studies on Political Parties and Party Systems).<br />
<br />
<br />
Here is from the introduction:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<a href="https://images.tandf.co.uk/common/jackets/amazon/978113855/9781138550087.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="648" data-original-width="424" height="320" src="https://images.tandf.co.uk/common/jackets/amazon/978113855/9781138550087.jpg" width="209" /></a><i>"When looking at the Danish political system in the first decade and a half of the new millennium, it is tempting to quote Lampedusa’s words from Il Gattopardo: That everything must change so that everything can remain the same. New parties emerged, semi-old parties disappeared but, on the surface, most things seem largely the same. Yet that would to a large extent be to ignore some quite subtle but important changes, fi rst and foremost that the “quadropoly” of the “four old parties”, which has dominated Danish politics for a century, have declined in strength and given way to a much more fragmented and multipolar party system. This change has come about gradually. There is no particular revival after the economic or immigration crises and neither does the framing of new parties indicate a link. While these crises have had an impact on the political agenda and policies, they do not seem to have had an impact on the confi guration of the Danish party system. The historic core of the Danish party system has declined. The four old parties won nine out of ten votes prior to the earthquake election of 1973 at which they gained only 58 percent. In the period under scrutiny here, the combined electoral base of these four parties has shrunk from three out of four in 2001 and 2005 to two-thirds in 2007 and 2011 and only just over half in 2015. While they still provide a core, they simply do not dominate the party system to the same extent as they used to. This decline in the support for the oldest parties is similar across the Scandinavian countries but more marked in Denmark." </i></blockquote>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The other is my "Public choice and social democracy" in R. Congleton, B. Grofman & S. Voigt (eds.) <i><a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-oxford-handbook-of-public-choice-volume-1-9780190469733?cc=us&lang=en&" target="_blank">Oxford handbook of public choice</a>.</i> Oxford: Oxford University Press, <span class="volume">2019, Vol. 1</span>. (Oxford Handbooks). Here is the abstract:</div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/covers/pdp/9780190469733" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="262" data-original-width="180" src="https://global.oup.com/academic/covers/pdp/9780190469733" /></a></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<![endif]--><i><span lang="EN-US">"Since World War I, “social democracy” has been one
of the most influential political ideas. It refers to a partisan political
movement, an ideological orientation, and a set of political institutions. Common
denominators are the extension of democracy to socioeconomic spheres and an
expansion of government activities beyond those of merely providing national
security, law and order, and a narrow set of public goods. However, such a
program would seem problematic given a number of insights offered by public
choice theory: All forms of majority decisions are sensitive to even small
changes in the procedures and are likely to produce outcomes not preferred by a
majority. Majority decisions also risk producing Pareto-inferior outcomes, especially
when costs can be imposed on others. And the fewer constitutional limits on
government activities there are, the larger the extent of rent seeking with
associated welfare losses is likely to be. Together these points are
significant challenges to a program that wants to extend majority decision to
new spheres while simultaneously promising prosperity for all."</span></i></blockquote>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-56379099976478468442017-11-29T15:16:00.000+01:002017-11-29T15:16:01.346+01:00Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primariesMy social choice analysis of "voting paradoxes" in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries (Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries) has now <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0176268017300782" target="_blank">been published</a> in the <i>European Journal of Political Economy</i>. Here is the abstract:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>"The organization of US presidential elections makes them potentially vulnerable to the “voting paradoxes” identified by social choice theorists but rarely documented in real-world elections. Using polling data from the 2016 Republican presidential primaries we identify two possible cases: Early in the pre-primary (2015) a cyclical majority may have existed in Republican voters’ preferences between Bush, Cruz and Walker. Furthermore, later polling data (January-March 2016) suggests that while Trump (who achieved less than 50% of the total Republican primary vote) was the Plurality Winner, he could have been beaten in pairwise contests by at least one other candidate and may have been the Condorcet Loser. The cases confirm the empirical relevance of the theoretical voting paradoxes and the importance of voting procedures."</i></blockquote>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-47926120286911468342017-01-09T19:24:00.000+01:002017-01-09T19:24:36.041+01:00Udvalgte, populære debatindlæg i 2016Jeg har i de senere år engang om året oplistet de af mine indlæg, der har været mest populære på de sociale medier--målt som hyppigst "liket" på Facebook. (Her er <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2016/01/udvalgte-klummer-og-indlg-2015.html" target="_blank">opgørelsen for 2015</a>.) Den opgørelse er blevet besværliggjort noget i 2016--af flere årsager--og dette bliver nok sidste gang, jeg gør det.<br />
<br />
At se på "likes" er blevet besværliggjort, først og fremmest, fordi <i>Berlingske</i>, som jeg var tilknyttet 1999-2002 og 2004-2016, af uransagelige årsager for anden gang på få år besluttede sig for at fjerne "like"-knappen fra avisens hjemmeside for alt andet end bloggene. (Jeg påtalte det første gang og argumenterede for, hvorfor det var en tåbelig beslutning--det kunne man ikke give et godt svar på, hvorefter de genindførte knappen. Denne gang tog jeg det op igen--og fik aldrig noget svar.) I december rykkede jeg fra <i>Berlingske</i> til <i>Børsen</i>, og der har man heller ikke "like"-knappen--hvilket jeg ikke forstår, for det giver alt andet lige bredere og bedre spredning end "dele"-knappen.<br />
<br />
Anyhow, jeg skrev igen i 2016 mellem 50 og 100 debatindlæg m.v., og her er så de af mine hos <i>Berlingske</i>, der opgjort på denne måde (mindst 75 "likes") var de mest populære i 2016, omend jeg nu ikke kan anføre opdaterede tal for andet end blogposterne:<br />
<ol>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/03/24/organet-for-det-hoejeste-sludder/" target="_blank">"Organet for det højeste sludder"</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 306. </li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/09/15/dansk-folkeparti-bluffer" target="_blank">"Dansk Folkeparti bluffer"</a>,
<i>Magt & Marked</i>: 236. </li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/12/04/moderne-borgerlighed/" target="_blank">"Moderne borgerlighed"</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 212.</li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/06/19/har-nye-borgerlige-en-chance" target="_blank">"Har Nye Borgerlige en chance?"</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 186.</li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/04/18/bernie-trotsky-co" target="_blank">"Bernie, Trotsky & co."</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 170</li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/01/22/republikansk-borgerkrig" target="_blank">"Republikansk borgerkrig"</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 112</li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2016/10/06/borgerlig-splittelse/" target="_blank">"Borgerlig splittelse?"</a>, <i>Magt & Marked</i>: 77.</li>
</ol>
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/hvis-danmark-var-en-stat-i-usa" target="_blank">"Hvis Danmark var en stat i USA"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/den-forlorne-frihed" target="_blank">"Den forlorne frihed"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/frihedens-formodning" target="_blank">"Frihedens formodning"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/konservativ-bundskraber" target="_blank">"Konservativ bundskraber"</a>, <i>Groft Sagt</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/uden-regning" target="_blank">"Ingen regning"</a>, <i>Groft Sagt</i>: (knappen fjernet) </li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/venezuela-og-venstrefloejen" target="_blank">"Venezuela og venstrefløjen"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/folk-og-styre" target="_blank">"Folk og styre"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/soeren-i-eventyrland" target="_blank">"Søren i Eventyrland"</a>, <i>Groft Sagt</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/velfaerds-koalitionens-store-fiktion" target="_blank">"Velfærds-koalitionens store fiktion"</a>, <i>Kurrilds</i>: (knappen fjernet)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/doedsfald/renaessancemanden" target="_blank">"Renæssancemanden"</a> (nekrolog over Hector Estrup): (knappen fjernet)</li>
</ul>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-1492094564485882922016-11-06T13:12:00.001+01:002016-11-07T00:46:05.864+01:00Too close to call (again): A "fundamentals" look at the US presidential electionHere a few days before the 2016 US presidential election I have updated my own little model (which I call "Bread & The Cost of Ruling") with the most recent data. My model--which I have developed over the last four elections and which is inspired by somewhat different, but also slightly similar, models by <a href="http://douglas-hibbs.com/" target="_blank">Douglas Hibbs</a>, <a href="http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/lewis-beck-tien/" target="_blank">Michael Lewis-Beck</a>, <a href="http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/fair-model/" target="_blank">Ray Fair</a> and <a href="http://pollyvote.com/en/components/econometric-models/time-for-change-model/" target="_blank">Alan Abramowitz</a>--relies on three elements for the explanation of the two-party vote share of the incumbent party's presidential candidate:<br />
<ol>
<li><b>Economic growth</b>: Developments in real disposable income since the previous midterm election (presumed to be positive for the candidate); </li>
<li><b>"The cost of ruling"</b>: A composite measure balancing a) the number of terms a party has held the presidency (presumed to be negative), but also considering b) whether the candidate is an incumbent (presumed to be positive); </li>
<li><b>Presidential approval: </b>The incumbent president's positive approval ratings (presumed to be positive).</li>
</ol>
Applying the model (through simple OLS-regression analysis) to data for the 16 presidential elections 1952-2012 we get this statistical model:<br />
<ul>
<li>Constant: 40.22</li>
<li>Economic Growth: 1.95</li>
<li>Cost of Ruling: -1.52</li>
<li>Presidential approval: 0.12</li>
</ul>
<br />
The explanatory power of the three variables together is quite strong, explaining 87% of the variation in the two-party vote 1952-2012.<br />
<br />
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" width="400" /><br />
<br />
In particular, there is the familiar picture of economic conditions playing a large role--here the correlation between economic growth and incumbent party's share of two-party vote when controlling for other factors:<br />
<img alt="" height="320" src="data:image/png;base64,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" width="400" /><br />
<br />
Plugging in the relevant data for 2016 (3.3 pct. average quarterly growth up to
and including 2Q of 2016, given that we do not yet know 3Q; 51.3%
approval rating for Obama, using RealClearPolitics.com's averages), we
get that the Democratic candidate for president (Hillary Clinton) should
get ... (drum roll) ... <b> <u>49.99% of the two-party vote</u></b>.<br />
<br />
Essentially
this is as close to a coin toss as possible--although it should be noted that such a
use for "prediction" comes with a caveat: In this case the standard
error of the estimate (when applied to the 1948-2012 elections) is at
2.28%. <br />
<br />
What this means is that the election--in the eyes of the model--should look so extremely close at the national level (disregarding the issue of the Electoral College votes) that we really cannot say who is going to win. In fact, we should not be surprised by a relatively narrow win in
the national vote (with, say, a 2 pct.point margin) for either of the
candidates.<br />
<br />
This is not really what the opinion polls, the forecasting models and prediction markets suggest and have <a href="http://pollyvote.com/en/" target="_blank">suggested all year (namely a relatively clear Clinton victory)</a>. However, it does match the tendency in the last weeks of the presidential campaign for the national polls to tighten rather visibly.<br />
<br />
If there was a modern presidential campaign where "the ground game" ("get out the vote"-operations) and voter enthusiasm/lack thereof might play a role, this could very well be it.<br />
<br />
If on Tuesday Clinton ends up winning more like the opinion polls suggest than <a href="http://www.vox.com/a/trump-tax" target="_blank">what econometric models</a> such as the present one tends to forecast, then <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/8/17/12455782/donald-trump-fundamentals-underperform" target="_blank">the "credit"</a> might very well go to the <a href="http://www.vox.com/2016/8/17/12455782/donald-trump-fundamentals-underperform" target="_blank">Republicans and their candidate</a>.Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-8802845323879548602016-11-02T00:55:00.001+01:002016-11-02T01:04:16.225+01:00Did Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson hurt Trump or Clinton the most?It is frequently assumed--across the ideological spectrum--that the presence of the US Libertarian Party in US elections primarily hurts the Republican Party's candidates. In a new, little note, <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/74819/" target="_blank">published as a working paper</a>, I challenge this view with a simple empirical analysis of 196 published, non-partisan 3- or 4-way polls from the 2016 US Presidential Election (from March 23rd to October 26th 2016).<br />
<br />
If the assumption of Johnson costing Trump votes was true, we should see a <i>negative</i> relationship between Johnson's vote shares and Donald Trump's (so that when Johnson does better in a poll, Trump does worse). However, we should also then expect a <i>positive </i>relationship between Johnson's vote shares and Hillary Clinton's lead against Trump (so what when Johnson does better in a poll, Clinton leads more).<br />
<br />
Looking at the data, I do find support for the former hypothesis--thus suggesting that, yes, Johnson does take votes from Trump, although the association is relatively weak. That is really not surprising, as any "third" candidate is likely to take at least some votes from any of the two major party candidates. And indeed there is an equally visible negative relationship between Johnson's vote shares and Clinton's.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSNo0iO2rvBT-dFeIRDTWiYuZLpbxAJYGGY4bAug5cDgN2-9O5Gaq3GR8ElbNfufj0R5tfxgR4fA6di5IAxkXs3oQDZKnCTs0NH58anGKTkTfRvmq_imNdVXNGocINKULpW8-q2sjZdRio/s1600/Johnson_Trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSNo0iO2rvBT-dFeIRDTWiYuZLpbxAJYGGY4bAug5cDgN2-9O5Gaq3GR8ElbNfufj0R5tfxgR4fA6di5IAxkXs3oQDZKnCTs0NH58anGKTkTfRvmq_imNdVXNGocINKULpW8-q2sjZdRio/s400/Johnson_Trump.jpg" width="525" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjODAzybUJTyB-MnwRtRqhM8WCTQM7yn9qypB32V9NJxgjCCZJTeBMkChy-Yhud0I8lDKbtiR5hqBFVR5Th8_uPg5edp6VpQN9WmHsjjzAu_k9jXzOVz3Rzgg8CwyNHEp5cPIwdtskWWSpB/s1600/Johnson_Clinton.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjODAzybUJTyB-MnwRtRqhM8WCTQM7yn9qypB32V9NJxgjCCZJTeBMkChy-Yhud0I8lDKbtiR5hqBFVR5Th8_uPg5edp6VpQN9WmHsjjzAu_k9jXzOVz3Rzgg8CwyNHEp5cPIwdtskWWSpB/s400/Johnson_Clinton.jpg" width="525" /></a></div>
<br />
In other words, while Johnson does seem to cost Trump votes, he does the same for Clinton. Indeed, loking at the graphs and the relevant correlation coefficients the possible "impact" <i>prima facie</i> seems of comparable size.<br />
<br />
However, and more importantly, I do <i>not </i>find support for the latter of the hypotheses above. There is <u>*no*</u> visible positive association between Johnson's support levels and Clinton's lead. In other words: Johnson's presence in the race does not hurt Trump more than it hurts Clinton.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRk3F8DhGn5eMEqSrZ7UZ-K9J8xUXkkQwdVYoy_9TUumAfBPS9QTgGj78WSGRfiRXJSbWXDgYvX-AQJvccFWQmJc0Yd5QJQujwBusy-LJHGRl0weGk_eSJa80A2ubVqiSeIJ_zznE6h0_/s1600/Johnson_Clinton+lead.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimRk3F8DhGn5eMEqSrZ7UZ-K9J8xUXkkQwdVYoy_9TUumAfBPS9QTgGj78WSGRfiRXJSbWXDgYvX-AQJvccFWQmJc0Yd5QJQujwBusy-LJHGRl0weGk_eSJa80A2ubVqiSeIJ_zznE6h0_/s400/Johnson_Clinton+lead.jpg" width="525" /></a></div>
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In fact, there are indications (when controlling for time, etc.) that Johnson's level of support is <i>negatively</i> related to Clinton's lead--thus suggesting that he primarily has taken votes from her and thus indirectly benefited Trump. Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-24490644397429237172016-06-22T15:51:00.000+02:002016-06-22T16:39:20.839+02:00Leave or remain? Polls & probabilities on UK referendumWhere to look for information on the UK referendum on EU on the 23rd of June? Don't look at individual polls--look at "polls of polls" (averages, weighted or not) or prediction markets (bookmakers, futures markets, etc.).<br />
<br />
Here they are:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><i><a href="http://predictwise.com/politics/uk-politics" target="_blank">Predictwise probabilities</a></i>: 22.VI.: 75% "remain"; 24% "leave"<i> </i></li>
<li><a href="http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/06/britain-s-eu-referendum" target="_blank"><i>The Economist "Poll of Polls"</i></a>: 20.VI.: 44% "remain"; 43% "leave"<i> </i></li>
<li><a href="https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/" target="_blank"><i>Financial Times</i> "Poll of Polls"</a>: 22.VI.: 44% "remain"; 45% "leave"</li>
<li><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36271589" target="_blank"><i>BBC</i> Refendum "Poll of Polls"</a>: 22.VI.: 45% "remain"; 44% "leave"</li>
<li><a href="http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/" target="_blank">WhatUThinks "Poll of Polls"</a>: 20.VI.: 51% "remain"; 49% "leave"</li>
</ul>
More odds <a href="http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-referendum-2016-betting-brexit-8182872" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
<br />
<b><i>Update</i></b>: Good Danish <a href="http://finans.dk/live/opinion/ECE8782311/brexit-forvirrede-maalinger-eller-et-forvirret-marked/" target="_blank">piece by Sebastian Barfort</a> on polls vs. betting markets, etc.Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-39613305921390516192016-02-05T10:55:00.000+01:002016-02-07T18:04:30.111+01:00Social choice and the 2016 US presidential election<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://computerstories.net/wp-content/uploads/Nicholas-de-Condorcet.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://computerstories.net/wp-content/uploads/Nicholas-de-Condorcet.jpg" height="200" width="200" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px; text-align: center;">Marquis de Condorcet<br />
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This is one of those "seasons" of the US political cycle, where I follow US opinion polls very closely, and I noticed a funny, little odd thing looking at some of the polls--specifically the RealClearPolitics.com polling averages (General Election <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html" target="_blank">head-to-head match-up polls</a> & national party primary polls of <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html" target="_blank">Democrats </a>and <a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html" target="_blank">Republicans</a>) and a single head-to-head match-up primary poll (with Cruz v. Trump and Rubio v. Trump, <a href="http://www.pollingreport.com/wh16rep.htm" target="_blank">NBCNews/WSJ</a>) not included in those averages. <br />
<br />
On the day of the Iowa Caucus I wrote a hasty little research note on the topic, which you can download <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/69171/" target="_blank">here</a>. <br />
<br />
But here is the gist of it, where > means "beats":<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Clinton > Trump</li>
<li>Clinton > Sanders</li>
<li>Cruz > Clinton</li>
<li>Rubio > Clinton</li>
<li>Rubio > Sanders</li>
<li>Sanders > Cruz</li>
<li>Sanders > Trump</li>
<li>Trump > Cruz</li>
<li>Trump > Rubio</li>
</ul>
<br />
If that is correct (and we are disregarding the question of the confidence intervals of the polls), then we would seem to have three possible "cyclical majorities" (of a sort) involving all five leading contenders for the nomination of the two parties:<br />
<ul>
<li>Sanders > Trump > Rubio > Sanders </li>
<li>Rubio > Clinton > Trump > Rubio </li>
<li>Cruz > Clinton > Sanders > Cruz </li>
</ul>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://cdn1.theodysseyonline.com/files/2015/11/22/635838115365780122-901575687_6358235333419573281092854367_donald-trump.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="http://cdn1.theodysseyonline.com/files/2015/11/22/635838115365780122-901575687_6358235333419573281092854367_donald-trump.jpg" height="192" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><u>Not</u> Marquis de Condorcet</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
This is, of course, somewhat speculative and quite counter-factual, given that it is based in different "constituencies" (so to speak). But it certainly suggests--as in the "Condorcet Paradox"--that no matter which of these five might win the US presidential election in November, there is a non-trivial possibility that that person could be beaten in a pairwise contest by at least one other candidate.<br />
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Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-44056045842884968342016-01-18T16:19:00.002+01:002016-07-05T20:58:27.816+02:00Udvalgte klummer og indlæg 2015<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Som tidligere år<span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px;">--<a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2015/01/udvalgte-klummer-indlg-2014.html" target="_blank">2014</a>, <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2014/01/udvalgte-klummer-indlg-2013.html" style="color: #3d85c6; text-decoration: none;">2013</a> og </span><a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2012/08/udvalgte-klummer-indlg-2011-12.html" style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #3d85c6; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-decoration: none;">2012</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px;">--kommer her</span> en liste over de af mine debatindlæg, der i det forgangne år har været mest "populære", målt som antal "likes" på Facebook. Jeg har i det forgangne år skrevet mellem 50 og 100 indlæg, og her er de 20 "mest populære":<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/goeglerpartiets-nye-klaeder" target="_blank">"Gøglerpartiets nye klæder"</a> (<i>Kurrilds</i>):</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> +5.600</span></li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/01/03/jeg-mig-jeg-nytarstale-med-ego-pa/" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Jeg, mig, jeg - nytårstale med ego på"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Magt & Marked</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 659</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/hvem-vogter-vogterne-0" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Hvem vogter vogterne?"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Kurrilds</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 302</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/og-jeg-mener-det-altsaa" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Og jeg mener det altså!"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Groft Sagt</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 244</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/02/04/venstre-imod-boligejerne" target="_blank">"Venstre imod boligejerne"</a> (<i>Magt & Marked</i>):</span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> 221</span></li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/12/03/den-elitaere-goliat/" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Den elitære Goliath"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Magt & Marked</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): : 205</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/uvidende-vaelgere" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Uvidende vælgere"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Kurrilds</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 151</span></li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/02/21/det-vil-ske-igen-men-hvad-gor-vi/" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Det vil ske igen--men hvad gør vi?"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Magt & Marked</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 130</span></li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/11/24/det-er-absolut-sidste-chance-for-verdens-undergang-igen-igen/" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Det er absolut sidste chance før verdens undergang - igen-igen"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Magt & Marked</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 123</span></li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/09/01/trumps-kandidatur-skal-ikke-tages-alvorligt/" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Trumps kandidatur skal ikke tages alvorligt"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Magt & Marked</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 115</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/lovgivende-og-udoevende" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Lovgivende og udøvende"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Kurrilds</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 112</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/06/05/hvis-folketingsvalget-for-alvor-gar-galt/" target="_blank">"Hvis folketingsvalget for alvor går galt ..."</a> (<i>Magt & Marked</i>): </span><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> 109</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/spejlet-paa-vaeggen" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Spejlet på væggen"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Kurrilds</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 108</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/04/28/partilederpopularitet-afgor-ikke-blokkenes-styrke/" target="_blank">"Partilederpopularitet afgør ikke blokkenes styrke"</a> (<i>Magt & Marked</i>): 90</span></li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/ridefogederne" style="font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;" target="_blank">"Ridefogederne"</a><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"> (</span><i style="color: #333333; font-family: Georgia, Utopia, 'Palatino Linotype', Palatino, serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">Groft Sagt</i><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;">): 90</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/groft-sagt/rygradsskade" target="_blank">"Rygradsskade"</a> (<i>Groft Sagt</i>): 89</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/nej-ikke-et-jordskredsvalg" target="_blank">"Nej, ikke et jordskredsvalg"</a> (<i>Kurrilds</i>): 86</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/giv-knivloven-kniven" target="_blank">"Giv knivloven kniven"</a> (<i>Kurrilds</i>): 84</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/skattestop-og-mistillid" target="_blank">"Skattestop og mistillid"</a> (<i>Kurrilds</i>): 82</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/09/23/stampe-godwins-lov-og-migrationskrisen/" target="_blank">"Zenia Stampe, 'Godwins Lov' og migrationskrisen"</a> (<i>Magt & Marked</i>): 82</span></li>
<li><span style="background-color: #fefdfa; color: #333333; font-family: "georgia" , "utopia" , "palatino linotype" , "palatino" , serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6px; text-align: justify;"><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/ulighed-og-uvidenhed" target="_blank">"Ulighed og <a name='more'></a>uvidenhed"</a> (<i>Kurrilds</i>): 77</span></li>
</ol>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com16tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-13946816185018469102015-12-08T15:40:00.002+01:002015-12-08T15:41:31.117+01:00EU-nej'et: En bred, folkelig mistillid til politikerneJeg har i kølvandet på <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2015/12/et-nej-tegner-sig-ved-folkeafstemningen.html" target="_blank">det forudsete</a> (og efter min mening rimeligt forudselige) "nej" ved folkeafstemningen 3. december haft to indlæg hos Berlingske om dette og årsagerne:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/12/03/den-elitaere-goliat/" target="_blank">"Den elitære Goliath"</a> ("Magt & Marked", 3. december 2015)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/mistillid-til-eliten" target="_blank">"Mistillid til eliten"</a> ("Kurrilds", 7. december 2015)</li>
</ul>
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<br />Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-45633567995708960962015-12-03T08:59:00.001+01:002016-02-03T14:51:45.262+01:00Et "nej" tegner sig ved folkeafstemningen: cirka 52-53% - 47-48%<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoznpA3hn3nzQDhGqphCW6jIWBFEWnpan4yCf5j9reQD3KnZrRv-Y70zG-fwDwkuk57Sf6fzYXih84OTQC11EKM7L29xkF0HZpvZeGdqqkjsM4TeU3bubYaTK1iJlolNUaXkNHHVZ4EI9X/s1600/Folkeafstemning.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoznpA3hn3nzQDhGqphCW6jIWBFEWnpan4yCf5j9reQD3KnZrRv-Y70zG-fwDwkuk57Sf6fzYXih84OTQC11EKM7L29xkF0HZpvZeGdqqkjsM4TeU3bubYaTK1iJlolNUaXkNHHVZ4EI9X/s320/Folkeafstemning.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Næsten uanset hvordan man vender og drejer den seneste uges meningsmålinger, tegner det til, at folkeafstemningen i dag om suverænitetsafgivelse til EU i.f.m. retspolitikken <b>bliver et nej</b>. Formodentlig <b>i omegnen af 52-53% "nej" og 47-48% "ja"</b>. <br />
<br />
Der har i de seneste målinger været noget, der ligner en lille bevægelse til fordel for "ja", men alt i alt er der simpelthen for meget, der ensartet peger i retning af et "nej".<br />
<br />
Det er efterhånden velkendt, at det er en skidt idé at tro på kun én meningsmåling--også fordi man oplagt kommer til at <i>"cherry-picke"</i>, altså vælge den man selv synes bedst om. Vil man have et sikkert bud på tendensen eller status, står man sig bedre ved at se på samtlige tilgængelige meningsmålinger.<br />
<br />
Men der er ingen entydigt "rigtig" måde at gøre dét på. Skal man f.eks. tage et simpelt gennemsnit, eller ét hvor man vægter de enkelte målinger? Og hvis man vægter dem, skal man så vægte for antal respondenter eller målingernes "alder" eller begge dele? Eller skal man (som denne iagttager efterhånden foretrækker) bruge median-målingen snarere end gennemsnittet? Og hvor mange målinger skal man medtage, og skal man evt. sætte loft over hvor mange fra hvert enkelt meningsmålingsfirma?<br />
<br />
Der er ikke noget kategorisk rigtigt svar på disse spørgsmål--det er håndværk snarere end videnskab. Men den seneste uges meningsmålinger er så entydige, at det her ikke betyder meget fra eller til. <b>Af de seneste ni meningsmålinger har kun én (for ti dage siden) peget på et "ja"</b>--og det med så lille et forspring, at det var ligegyldigt. I de meningsmålinger, hvor den ene side har haft et forspring, der er statistisk signifikant, er det hver gang til "nej"-siden.<br />
<br />
Nedenfor er gengivet tre forskellige måder at udregne et "aggregeret" meningsmålings-billede:<br />
<a name='more'></a> (1) Ved at tage et gennemsnit vægtet for antal respondenter; (2) ved at tage et simpelt aritmetisk gennemsnit af målingerne; og (3) ved at tage "medianen". Til venstre er gengivet svar-procenterne; til højre er "ved ikke" frasorteret og "ja" og "nej" omregnet som tilsammen = 100%. Som grundlag er anvendt de seneste fem offentliggjorte målinger. Billedet er ret klart og ensartet: <br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 604px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 7680; mso-width-source: userset; width: 165pt;" width="220"></col>
<col span="6" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; width: 165pt;" width="220"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><br /></td><td colspan="2" style="mso-ignore: colspan; width: 96pt;" width="128"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 604px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 7680; mso-width-source: userset; width: 165pt;" width="220"></col>
<col span="6" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt; width: 165pt;" width="220"></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td style="width: 48pt;" width="64"></td>
<td colspan="2" style="mso-ignore: colspan; width: 96pt;" width="128"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Normaliseret
til 100%</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Ja</span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Nej</span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Ved ikke</span></td>
<td></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Ja</span></td>
<td><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Nej</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td><td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></td></tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Gennemsnit (vægtet), fem seneste</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">36,5</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">40,3</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">21,8</span></td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">47,5</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">52,5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Gennemsnit (simpelt), fem seneste</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">37,1</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">40,8</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">20,5</span></td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">47,6</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">52,4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;">
<td height="19" style="height: 14.5pt;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Median, fem seneste</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;">37,4</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;">42,2</span></td>
<td align="right"><span style="font-size: x-small;">18,4</span></td>
<td></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">47,0</span></td>
<td align="right" class="xl65"><span style="font-size: x-small;">53,0</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<br />
<br />
Forskellene mellem "ja" og "nej" er her (hvor der er tale om aggregeringer af flere målinger) store nok til, at forbehold for den statistiske sikkerhed skulle være unødvendige, Kun <b>hvis samtlige meningsmålingsfirmaer har seriøst fejl-"samplet" deres udvalg af vælgere</b>, eller hvis der overraskende <b>sker et "ryk"</b> blandt tvivlerne, der på <b>samme tid er både er stort af omfang <u>og</u> ensartet i "ja"-retning</b>, kan vi vente, <b>at slutresultatet bliver meget anderledes</b>. <br />
<br />
Det er der umiddelbart ingen grund til at tro--men det ved vi i givet fald først i aften.Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-22768704417207066002015-06-24T22:47:00.001+02:002015-06-24T22:47:24.597+02:00Hvordan klarede meningsmålingsfirmaerne & co. sig? PS ... Jeg præsenterede i dag ved et morgenmøde i CEPOS en udvidet version af <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2015/06/hvordan-klarede-meningsmalingsfirmaerne.html">nedennævnte sammenligning</a> af, hvordan meningsmålingerne m.v. klarede sig i.f.m. FV15. Mine PowerPoint-dias med tal & kommentarer kan <a href="https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnxwZXRlcmt1cnJpbGRrbGl0Z2FhcmR8Z3g6MzIxYzdjOWY5YzgyNzgwNA" target="_blank">ses/downloades her</a>.Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-52236971512446886192015-06-19T02:14:00.001+02:002015-06-24T22:44:44.675+02:00Hvordan klarede meningsmålingsfirmaerne & co. sig?Hvordan klarede meningsmålingsfirmaerne sig i forbindelse med FV15? I løbet af valgaftenen blev der på de sociale medier skældt meget ud på dem, mens prognoserne rullede, men hvordan gik det egentlig i praksis, da stemmerne var talt op? Og hvordan gik det med de medier og forskere, der--som jeg selv--forsøgte sig med at "aggregere" meningsmålingerne til mere "udglattede" resultater?<br />
<br />
Her kommer en hurtig opsummering, ordnet fra dem, der målt via "bruttofejl" i forhold til <a href="http://www.politiko.dk/valgresultat#/resultater/landet">det faktiske valgresultat</a>, var tættest på dette:<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Nettofejl (rundet af), ordnet fra færrest til flest:</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Gallup, sidste måling: 3,6%</li>
<li>Megafon, sidste måling: 3,9%</li>
<li>Voxmeter, <a name='more'></a>sidste måling: 4,1%</li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/mvinaes/status/611542368525885440">Hjorth/Olsen/Larsen/Dahlgaard, vægtet gennemsnit</a>: 4,3%</li>
<li><a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2015/06/udfaldet-af-folketingsvalget-2015.html">Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, median-model</a>: 4,5%</li>
<li><a href="http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/risbjerg-helt-doedt-loeb-mellem-blokkene">Søren Risbjerg Thomsen (Altinget.dk)</a>, vægtet gennemsnit: 4,5%</li>
<li><a href="http://www.politiko.dk/barometeret">Berlingske Barometer</a>, vægtet gennemsnit: 4,6%</li>
<li>Greens, sidste måling: 4,8%</li>
<li>Epinion, sidste måling: 5,0%</li>
<li>YouGov, sidste måling: 5,2%</li>
<li>Wilke, sidste måling: 5,9% </li>
</ul>
Kan man udlede noget af dét? Ikke her kl. 02.10 ovenpå valgaften ... Ikke meget andet end, at det at prøve at aggregere meningsmålinger endnu engang har vist sig at give et resultat "midt i feltet": et bedre resultat end de dårligste enkeltmålinger, men ikke så godt ét som de bedste. Derudover ligger de forskellige aggregeringer--trods forskellige teknikker og delvist forskellige "input"--ganske, ganske tæt.<br />
<br />
En anden måde at se på resultatet på, er ved at se på, hvor langt man var fra det "endelige" resultat m.h.t. tilslutningen til fløjene. Lad os her tage det i.f.t., hvad man "tildelte" partierne i "blå blok" som stemmeandel (52,3%):<br />
<br />
<b>Blok-resultat (fra tættest til fjernest):</b><br />
<ul>
<li>Megafon, sidste måling: 51,4% (nettofejl = 0,8%)</li>
<li><a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2015/06/udfaldet-af-folketingsvalget-2015.html">Peter Kurrild-Klitgaard, median-model</a>: 51,4% (nettofejl = 0,9%)</li>
<li>Greens, sidste måling: 50,9% (nettofejl = 1,4%)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/risbjerg-helt-doedt-loeb-mellem-blokkene">Søren Risbjerg Thomsen (Altinget.dk)</a>, vægtet gennemsnit: 50,8% (nettofejl = 1,5%)</li>
<li>Wilke, sidste måling: 50,8% (nettofejl = 1,5%)</li>
<li>Gallup, sidste måling: 50,7% (nettofejl = 1,6%)</li>
<li>Epinion, sidste måling: 50,7% (nettofejl = 1,6%)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.politiko.dk/barometeret">Berlingske Barometer</a>, vægtet gennemsnit: 50,5% (nettofejl = 1,8%)</li>
<li><a href="https://twitter.com/mvinaes/status/611542368525885440">Hjorth/Olsen/Larsen/Dahlgaard, vægtet gennemsnit</a>: 50,4% (nettofejl = 1,9%)</li>
<li>YouGov, sidste måling: 50,0% (nettofejl = 2,3%)</li>
<li>Voxmeter, sidste måling: 48,8% (nettofejl = 3,5%)</li>
</ul>
Her fordeler målingerne og forsøgene på "aggregeringer" sig noget mere spredt: Med undertegnede og Megafons sidste måling "tættest" på det faktiske resultat, men med to meningsmålingsfirmaer længst fra.<br />
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<i>Update</i>: Den ovennævnte opgørelse er blevet opdateret med "netto-fejl": Disse er samtlige fejlprocenter for de enkelte partier, lagt sammen og divideret med to. Her ses <a href="http://www.en-undersoegelse-viser.dk/malingerne-ramte-skaevt/">en lignende opgørelse </a>af netto-fejl for 2011-folketingsvalget:<br />
<a href="http://www.en-undersoegelse-viser.dk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Billede12.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" src="http://www.en-undersoegelse-viser.dk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/Billede12.jpg" height="208" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-22138844058816368512015-06-18T11:57:00.000+02:002016-02-03T14:48:08.597+01:00Udfaldet af folketingsvalget 2015?Aldrig er der blevet fremstillet så mange meningsmålinger ved et dansk folketingsvalg som ved dette, FV15. Nogle dage er der kommet hele syv nye, nationale målinger. Aldrig før har der været så mange forskere og "kommentatorer" til at drøfte og udlægge dem. Også ofte langt ud over, hvad der har været belæg for.<br />
<br />
De senere år er der også kommet flere "konkurrerende" aggregeringer af målinger: Først <a href="http://www.altinget.dk/artikel/risbjerg-helt-doedt-loeb-mellem-blokkene">Søren Risbjerg Thomsen på Altinget.dk</a>; siden forsøgsvis undertegnede <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2014/10/prognose-for-midtvejsvalg-i-usa-2014.html">her på stedet</a> og tidligere på <a href="http://punditokraterne.dk/">Punditokraterne.dk</a>; dernæst fra 2011 <a href="http://www.politiko.dk/barometeret">Berlingske Barometer</a>; og senest under denne valgkamp fra fire dygtige, yngre forskere på min arbejdsplads, Institut for Statskundskab ved Københavns Universitet (Jens Olav Dahlgaard, Frederik Hjorth, Martin Vinæs Larsen, Asmus Leth Olsen). Alle med lidt forskellige udvalg af målinger, og lidt forskellige "teknikker".<br />
<br />
Jeg har sådan set ikke meget yderligere at bidrage med, men har nu ved et par valg forsøgt mig med en <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2014/10/prognose-for-midtvejsvalg-i-usa-2014.html">"median-model"</a>, hvor jeg i stedet for at tage et gennemsnit (simpelt eller vægtet på den ene eller anden måde) tager medianen af de (syv) seneste målinger. Det er der forskellige grunde til, men kort fortalt viser erfaringerne fra flere lande, at man på den måde synes at få frasorteret "outlier"-enkeltmålinger, der trækker gennemsnittet for meget den ene eller anden vej.<br />
<br />
Her kommer så lidt på den baggrund.<br />
<br />
Det overordnede billede af valgkampen ser omtrent sådan ud: På valgdagen ser de to "blokke" ud til at stå stort set lige--efter først en solid føring fra "blå blok", dernæst en svag føring til først "rød blok" og derefter ditto til "blå blok" igen.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg60EZQFfUBcElA1_0rorUvhQRVYhauadXtbm1zIqkGD90cD-tS4ay7DGJZs0ocA8hUmqEUBc57XKu8SRQcSmUfv1qoH-f0SVBVrwI7x5Z-U3tVORqyEkjVdHQCA5PehsOFNRLbX7WhMZkh/s1600/Meningsm%25C3%25A5linger_status_2015_06_18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg60EZQFfUBcElA1_0rorUvhQRVYhauadXtbm1zIqkGD90cD-tS4ay7DGJZs0ocA8hUmqEUBc57XKu8SRQcSmUfv1qoH-f0SVBVrwI7x5Z-U3tVORqyEkjVdHQCA5PehsOFNRLbX7WhMZkh/s400/Meningsm%25C3%25A5linger_status_2015_06_18.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Min "median-model" (baseret på syv seneste målinger fra forskellige institutter) giver i stemmeandele pr. dd. 50,1% "blå" og 48,5% "røde" (og altså 1,4% "andre"). Det er <br />
<a name='more'></a>marginalt mere i "blå" favør end ved at tage et af gennemsnittene (baseret i samme målinger), men ganske lidt. Men ganske lidt kan være nok til at gøre en vigtig forskel. Se bare her, når det gælder mandatfordelinger partierne imellem:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 339px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 5841; mso-width-source: userset; width: 126pt;" width="167"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 3258; mso-width-source: userset; width: 70pt;" width="93"></col>
<col style="mso-width-alt: 2746; mso-width-source: userset; width: 59pt;" width="79"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl72" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt; width: 126pt;" width="167"></td>
<td class="xl73" style="width: 70pt;" width="93"><b>Median-model</b></td>
<td class="xl74" style="width: 59pt;" width="79"><b> Simpelt gennem- snit</b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Socialdemokraterne (A)</td>
<td class="xl71">43</td>
<td class="xl71">44</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Radikale Venstre (B)</td>
<td class="xl71">9</td>
<td class="xl71">9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Socialistisk Folkeparti (F)</td>
<td class="xl71">10</td>
<td class="xl71">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Enhedslisten (Ø)</td>
<td class="xl71">15</td>
<td class="xl71">15</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Alternativet (Å)</td>
<td class="xl71">9</td>
<td class="xl71">9</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl72" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red;">I alt</span></td>
<td class="xl75"><span style="color: red;">86</span></td>
<td class="xl75"><span style="color: red;">87</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;">
<td class="xl69" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.5pt;"><span style="color: red;">I alt +
nordatlantiske</span></td>
<td class="xl70" style="border-top: none;"><span style="color: red;">89</span></td>
<td class="xl78" style="border-top: none;"><b><u><span style="color: red;">90</span></u></b></td>
</tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;"><br />
Konservative (C )</td>
<td class="xl71">7</td>
<td class="xl71">7</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Liberal Alliance (I)</td>
<td class="xl71">14</td>
<td class="xl71">14</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Kristendemokraterne (K)</td>
<td class="xl71">0</td>
<td class="xl71">0</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Dansk Folkeparti (O)</td>
<td class="xl71">32</td>
<td class="xl71">32</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">Venstre (V)</td>
<td class="xl77">36</td>
<td class="xl77">35</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue;">I alt</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: blue;">89</span></td>
<td class="xl71"><span style="color: blue;">88</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;">
<td class="xl76" height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;"><span style="color: blue;">I alt + nordatlantiske</span></td>
<td class="xl78"><u><b><span style="color: blue;">90</span></b></u></td>
<td class="xl70"><span style="color: blue;">89</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Kort sagt: Det ligger så tæt, at "anything goes". Og én, der ligger ret tæt på, hvad jeg <a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/06/05/hvis-folketingsvalget-for-alvor-gar-galt/">skitserede midtvejs i valgkampen</a>: At man kan komme i en situation, hvor "blå blok" vinder et flertal af stemmerne, men "rød blok" får et flertal af mandaterne.<br />
<br />
Kan man komme det nærmere på nuværende tidspunkt? Næppe, men her er én grund til at tro, at "rød blok" har "strukturel fordel" qua de tre af de fire nordatlantiske mandater, der ser ud til at gå til venstrefløjen: Ser man på målingerne fra de seneste fire dage (24 ialt), så er status denne:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="color: blue;">"Blå" føring i stemmeandele: 18</span></li>
<li><span style="color: red;">"Rød" føring i stemmeandele: 6</span></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><span style="color: blue;">"Blå" føring i mandattal: 9</span></li>
<li><span style="color: red;">"Rød" føring i mandattal: 15</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
Kort sagt: Det kan godt være, at de borgerligt-liberale fører i gennemsnitlige stemmeandele o.l., men det er hyppigst venstrefløjen, der løber med et flertal af mandaterne. Noget tyder på, at "rød blok" med de tre fra Nordatlanten og stemmespild til Kristendemokraterne ligger til at have en "strukturel" fordel, som vil gøre udfaldet.<br />
<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
***</div>
<br />
<br />
Så hvad siger det altsammen? Her er nogle "take-away"-punkter fra det billede, meningsmålingerne giver, når de kombineres med mine mavefornemmelser:<br />
<ol>
<li>At valget--i fraværet på overraskende god "get out the vote"-operationer fra den ene eller anden side--ser ud til at blive meget tæt. <b>Meget muligt uhyggeligt tæt</b>.</li>
<li>At det meget, meget tænkeligt bliver <b>de nordatlantiske mandater, der afgør regeringsdannelsen</b>.</li>
<li>At uanset hvem, der i sidste ende vinder valget, så har <b>Helle Thorning-Schmidt været "the comeback kid"</b>, med overraskende opdrift de seneste måneder. Det har været godt "slutspil" fra hendes og hendes rådgiveres side.</li>
<li>At det meget tænkeligt var <b>kombinationen af mere positive økonomiske konjunkuturer og Lars Løkke Rasmussens ramponerede image</b>, der gjorde valget overraskende tæt i forhold til, hvad det tegnede til.</li>
</ol>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<i><b>Update</b></i>: Her er de stemmeandele for partierne, min median-model skulle give, justeret til 100 pct., d.v.s. uden "andre":<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 158px;">
<colgroup><col span="2" style="mso-width-alt: 2746; mso-width-source: userset; width: 59pt;" width="79"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt; width: 59pt;" width="79"></td>
<td class="xl71" style="width: 59pt;" width="79"><br /></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Socialdemokraterne (A)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">24,6</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Radikale Venstre (B)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">5,2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Socialistisk Folkeparti (F)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">5,4</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Enhedslisten (Ø)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">8,5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">Alternativet (Å)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">4,9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl70" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">I alt</span></td>
<td class="xl72"><span style="color: red; font-size: x-small;">48,7</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;">
<td class="xl68" height="18" style="border-top: none; height: 13.5pt;"></td>
<td class="xl69" style="border-top: none;"></td>
</tr>
<tr height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="18" style="height: 13.5pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Konservative (C )</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">3,9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Liberal Alliance (I)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">7,7</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Kristendemokraterne (K)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">0,9</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Dansk Folkeparti (O)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">18,2</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">Venstre (V)</span></td>
<td class="xl66"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">20,5</span></td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="17" style="height: 13.0pt;"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">I alt</span></td>
<td class="xl72"><span style="color: blue; font-size: x-small;">51,3</span></td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div>
<b><i>Update 2:</i></b> De ovennævnte mandatfordelinger var delvist under antagelse om, at de nordatlantiske ville fordele sig 3-1; det viste sig at blive 4-0. </div>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-5775974177152457052015-04-27T13:07:00.001+02:002015-04-27T13:08:52.282+02:00Mapping policy spacesHow do political parties locate themselves relative to each other in "political space"? And how can one "measure" and identify such locations? I have a <a href="http://rap.sagepub.com/content/2/2/2053168015580476">new paper</a> out in <i>Research & Politics</i>, authored with Frederik Hjorth, Robert Klemmensen, Sara Binzer Hobolt and Martin E. Hansen. Here is the abstract:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333335; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26.0400009155273px;">"Assigning political actors positions in ideological space is a task of key importance to political scientists. In this paper we compare estimates obtained using the automated </span><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333335; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 26.0400009155273px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wordscores</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333335; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26.0400009155273px;"> and</span><em style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #333335; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 26.0400009155273px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Wordfish</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #333335; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 26.0400009155273px;"> techniques, along with estimates from voters and the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), against expert placements. We estimate the positions of 254 manifestos across 33 elections in Germany and Denmark, two cases with very different textual data available. We find that Wordscores approximately replicates the CMP, voter, and expert assessments of party positions in both cases, whereas Wordfish replicates the positions in the German manifestos only. The results demonstrate that automated methods can produce valid estimates of party positions, but also that the appropriateness of each method hinges on the quality of the textual data. Additional analyses suggest that Wordfish requires both longer texts and a more ideologically charged vocabulary in order to produce estimates comparable to Wordscores. The paper contributes to the literature on automated content analysis by providing a comprehensive test of convergent validation, in terms of both number of cases analyzed and number of validation measures."</span></blockquote>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-29029148473962987712015-04-13T11:33:00.000+02:002016-02-03T14:52:27.758+01:00"Social choice" & demokratiske paradokserMin<a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/demokratiske-paradokser"> klumme dd.</a> giver et lille, kort "social choice"-teoretisk perspektiv på det kommende folketingsvalg:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq" style="border: 0px; color: #111111; font-family: b-sans-r; font-size: 16px; line-height: 22px; margin-bottom: 15px; padding: 0px;">
"Folketingsvalget kan komme når som helst, og uanset hvem der vinder, vil der være masser af skåltaler om, at valget er »en festdag for demokratiet«, og at »folket har talt«. Siden Murens fald i 1989-90 er demokrati da også blevet noget nær uanfægteligt som en måde at organisere politik på, i hvert fald i Vesten.<br />
Men den ukritiske fremstilling af demokratiet som manifestationen af en »folkevilje« er langt fra den logik, der mere fundamentalt kan karakterisere demokratiet, når man skraber lidt i overfladen. Dét er noget, matematikere, filosoffer og enkelte statsmænd har været klar over siden antikken, men sjældent er trængt igennem til den idylliserende måde, vi taler om demokratiet på.<br />
Problemet er i al sin simpelhed dette: På den ene side er det en »indbygget« del af vores demokratiforståelse, at »vinderen« skal være mere foretrukket af et flertal af vælgerne end alternativerne. På den anden side kan der reelt ske mærkelige ting, så snart mere end to personer skal vælge mellem mere end to alternativer, eller beslutningen skal »gennem« et valgsystem. I de sidste tilfælde kan man ikke være sikker på, at det første holder.<br />
<span style="border: 0px; font-family: b-sans-eb; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">H</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: b-sans-eb; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">va’ba? Jo, matematikere</span><span style="border: 0px; font-family: b-sans-eb; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"> </span>har vist, at man kan have situationer, hvor et flertal foretrækker C frem for B, og et flertal ønsker A snarere end B – men hvor det paradoksalt nok også er tilfældet, at et flertal vil have C frem for A. Dermed har man, hvad der kaldes et »cyklisk flertal«: C slår B slår A slår C. Uanset hvad der bliver valgt, er det alene måden og rækkefølgen, man stemmer på, der afgør udfaldet. [...]<br />
Man kalder dette for »Condorcets Paradoks« efter den franske matematiker, der i 1700-tallet opdagede det. Hans kollega opdagede det fænomen, der kaldes »Bordas Paradoks«: Her får A flere stemmer end B, men B vinder."</blockquote>
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_paradox">Condorcets Paradoks</a> anslås at forekomme i 10-15 pct. af de tilfælde, hvor mere end to vælgere skal vælge imellem mere end to alternativer--og <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borda_count">Bordas Paradoks</a> forekommer ganske hyppigt i alle tænkelige demokratiske sammenhænge.<br />
<br />
Det har jeg igennem årene beskæftiget mig en del med--også i "populære" kommentarer (f.eks. <a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/demokratiske-paradokser">dagens</a>, i en kommentar til <a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2013/09/27/den-demokratiske-defekt/">det tyske forbundsvalg</a>, i en alternativ analyse af <a href="http://punditokraterne.dk/2010/12/15/nixon-fik-flere-stemmer-end-kennedy-i-1960/">det amerikanske præsidentvalg i 1960</a>, om <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2011/09/aggregerings-paradoks-i-praksis.html">danske meningsmålinger i 2011</a>, og om <a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2013/03/stemmer-stemmerne-i-borgen.html">TV-serien "Borgen"</a> (!). <br />
<br />
Til min forskning på området hører bl.a. disse af mine arbejder, hvor jeg har prøvet <br />
<a name='more'></a>at konfrontere de teoretiske paradokser med den empiriske virkelighed:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://kurrild-klitgaard.blogspot.dk/2014/02/empirical-social-choice-special-issue.html">"Special Issue on Empirical Social Choice" </a>(<i>Public Choice</i>, 2014), hvoriblandt disse:</li>
<li>"Empirical social choice: An introduction", 'gated' udgave <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-014-0164-4">her</a>; 'ungated' version <a href="http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/53323/">her</a></li>
<li>"Picking a loser? A social choice perspective on the Danish government formation of 1975", 'gated' paper <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11127-013-0120-8">her</a>; 'ungated' version <a href="http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/49682/">her</a></li>
<li>"Election Inversions, Coalitions and Proportional Representation: Examples of Voting Paradoxes in Danish Government Formations" (<i>Scandinavian Political Studies</i>, 2013) ('gated' version <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9477.12002/abstract">her</a>; 'ungated' version <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/35302.html">her</a>)</li>
<li>"Voting paradoxes under proprtional representation: Evidence from eight Danish elections"(<i>Scandinavian Political Studies</i>, 2008) ('gated' version <a href="http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/bpl/scps/2008/00000031/00000003/art00002">her</a>)</li>
<li>"An empirical example of the Condorcet Paradox of voting in a large electorate" (<i>Public Choice</i>>, 2001) ('gated' version <a href="http://link.springer.com/article/10.1023%2FA%3A1010304729545">her</a>)</li>
</ul>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-51782798537431378812015-03-04T10:40:00.000+01:002015-03-04T10:40:45.624+01:00Terrorisme<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://multimedia.pol.dk/archive/00913/Terror_i_K_benhavn_913770n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://multimedia.pol.dk/archive/00913/Terror_i_K_benhavn_913770n.jpg" height="233" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
De forfærdelige terroranslag i Paris og København i januar og februar i år har--desværre--givet mig grund til at "genbesøge" et emne, som jeg i sin tid skrev min ph.d. afhandling om, nemlig politisk vold og oprør, herunder revolutioner, opstande og terrorisme, og siden hen har berørt i andre arbejder.<br />
<br />
Min afhandling, <i><a href="http://www.arnoldbusck.dk/boeger/samfund/rational-choice-collective-action-and-paradox-rebellion">"Rational Choice, Collective Action and the Paradox of Rebellion"</a></i> (1996, forsvaret 1997, her <a href="http://www.jstor.org/stable/30026115?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents">anmeldt i <i>Public Choice</i></a>)--som endte med at hænge mig langt ud af halsen--var et forsøg på at reformulere en rational choice-teori om politiske aktiviteter kendetegnede ved at være ulovlige, ofte voldelige, og havende en "kollektiv gode"-natur. Studiet, der primært var teoretisk i karakter, forkuserede på betydningen af ideologi og "politiske iværksættere".<br />
<br />
Jeg vendte sidenhen, sammen med Robert Klemmensen (SDU) og Mogens K. Justesen (CBS), tilbage til emnet terrorisme mere snævert i <a href="https://ideas.repec.org/.../pubcho/v128y2006i1p289-315.html">en artikel</a>, <i>"The Political Economy of Freedom, Democracy and Transnational Terrorism"</i> (2006), til et temanummer om terrorisme. Paperet, der (i al ubeskedenhed) siden er blevet dét mest citerede danske studie om terrorisme og et af de mest citerede internationalt af slagsen, havde dette sammendrag:<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.0" style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.3599996566772px;"><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.0.$end:0:$0:0">"We conduct an empirical analysis of data relating measures of economic and political freedom to the occurrence of transnational terrorism 1996–2002. We use binary l</span></span><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3" style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.3599996566772px;"><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3.0"><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3.0.$text0:0:$0:0">ogistical regression models </span></span></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3" style="background-color: #f6f7f8; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 15.3599996566772px;"><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3.0"><span data-reactid=".51.1:3:1:$comment581873677=210153164405878678=263_10153164520293678:0.0.$right.0.$left.0.0.1.$comment-body.0.3.0.$text0:0:$0:0">to predict the probablities that a country will experience transnational terrorist attacks and that a given terrorist originates in a particular country. We find that the extent of political rights and civil liberties is negatively related with the generation of transnational terrorists from a country, but where the former is also negatively related with the occurrence of transnational terrorism in a country, the latter exhibits a non-linear relationship. A number of alternative explanations are disconfirmed: transnational terrorism is unrelated to inequality, economic growth, education, poverty, etc., while a society's fractionalization has mixed importance, and the religious composition has no or little association with attracting or producing transnational terrorism. A more trade-oriented economy seems consistently to associate with smaller probabilities of a country experiencing and generating transnational terrorism." </span></span></span></blockquote>
Nogle af pointerne fra sidstnævnte studie--og fra tanker jeg siden har gjort mig--har jeg nu berørt i to nylige debatindlæg:<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/hvorfor-bliver-de-terrorister">"Hvorfor bliver de terrorister?"</a> (<i>Berlingske</i>, 2.III.2015)</li>
<li><a href="http://peterkurrild.blogs.berlingske.dk/2015/02/21/det-vil-ske-igen-men-hvad-gor-vi/">"Det vil ske igen--men hvad gør vi?"</a> (<i>Magt & Marked, b.dk</i>, 21.II.2015)</li>
</ul>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4770339627290856090.post-54269466227536307742015-03-02T11:55:00.000+01:002015-03-02T12:56:42.458+01:00Vælgernes viden og uvidenhed<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://blog.courion.com/Portals/41102/images/ignorance-is-bliss.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://blog.courion.com/Portals/41102/images/ignorance-is-bliss.jpg" height="166" width="320" /></a></div>
<i>Politiken </i>kan dd. fortælle på baggrund af en surveyundersøgelse blandt yngre danskere, at de adspurgte som helhed betragtet generelt <a href="http://politiken.dk/oekonomi/privatoekonomi/ECE2567326/forstaaelsen-for-pengesager-er-helt-i-bund-hos-unge/">ikke forstår så meget af økonomiske forhold</a>. Og det er endog når man spørger dem om deres privatøkonomi.<br />
<br />
Der er desværre grund til at tro, at vælgerne ikke er klogere, når det gælder politik og andre samfundsforhold. Tværtimod er deres viden ofte langt fra de fakta, de forsøger at tage stilling til. Det har jeg fornylig haft to klummer om, nemlig<br />
<a name='more'></a>:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/uvidende-vaelgere">"Uvidende vælgere"</a> (<i>Berlingske</i>, 2.II.2015)</li>
<li><a href="http://www.b.dk/kommentarer/ulighed-og-uvidenhed">"Ulighed og uvidenhed"</a> (<i>Berlingske</i>, 19.I.2015)</li>
</ul>
Peter Kurrild-Klitgaardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08275278596523804112noreply@blogger.com0