- Average of min./max. temperatures (according to DMI's weather forecast, as of Friday, for Tuesday min. 6 degrees Celsius, max. 18 degrees = average 12 degrees)
- Bandwagon (last year's no. of participants = 55,000)
- Colour of government (not a "bourgeois" government, i.e. a dummy = 0)
- Post-Soviet collapse (dummy = 1)
just the two first will give a forecast of 78,763 demonstrators (standard error of estimate: 43,000). These particular "simplified" forecasting models only explain 50-53 pct. of the variation in turn-out for the years 1980-2011, so there is a ample room for other factors to play a role and for the forecast to miss ...