Interessant forskning: Berg & Henrekson om offentlige udgifter/økonomisk vækst

De to fremragende svenske økonomer Andreas Bergh og Magnus Henrekson har fornylig fået udgivet deres interessante paper "Government Size and Growth: A Survey and Interpretation of the Evidence" i Journal of Economic Surveys.  Her er en tidligere udgave og dette sammendrag:

"The literature on the relationship between the size of government and economic growth is full of seemingly contradictory findings. This conflict is largely explained by variations in definitions and the countries studied. An alternative approach – of limiting the focus to studies of the relationship in rich countries, measuring government size as total taxes or total expenditure relative to GDP and relying on panel data estimations with variation over time – reveals a more consistent picture: The most recent studies find a significant negative correlation: An increase in government size by 10 percentage points is associated with a 0.5 to 1 percent lower annual growth rate. We discuss efforts to make sense of this correlation, and note several pitfalls involved in giving it a causal interpretation. Against this background, we discuss two explanations of why several countries with high taxes seem able to enjoy above average growth: One hypothesis is that countries with higher social trust levels are able to develop larger government sectors without harming the economy. Another explanation is that countries with large governments compensate for high taxes and spending by implementing market-friendly policies in other areas. Both explanations are supported by ongoing research."

Amerikansk politik & "The Chicago Way"

Lidt politisk ukorrekte sammenligninger af amerikansk politik & "the Chicago way".

Hvor stor skal staten være?

Hvilken farve skal månen have? Og hvor stor skal staten være? Det emne beskæftiger jeg mig dd. med i min faste "Perspektiv"-klumme i Berlingske Tidende. Jeg har skrevet om emnet før, men denne klumme er inspireret af en ny rapport af to bulgarske økonomer, der er fortsat i sporene efter en række af denne type af studier lavet de seneste to årtier (se f.eks. især her, samt her, her og her).

Det klima-industrielle kompleks

Min gamle kollega, fagfælle og studiekammerat, Bjørn Lomborg, har en tankevækkende kronik i Wall Street Journal om det, der kan kaldes det "klima-industrielle kompleks": Snævre særinteresser med en privatøkonomisk interesse i at ekspandere miljøreguleringen og derfor i at overdimensionere miljørpoblemerne:

"This phenomenon will be on display at the World Business Summit on Climate Change in Copenhagen this weekend. The organizers -- the Copenhagen Climate Council -- hope to push political leaders into more drastic promises when they negotiate the Kyoto Protocol's replacement in December.

The opening keynote address is to be delivered by Al Gore, who actually represents all three groups: He is a politician, a campaigner and the chair of a green private-equity firm invested in products that a climate-scared world would buy.

Naturally, many CEOs are genuinely concerned about global warming. But many of the most vocal stand to profit from carbon regulations. The term used by economists for their behavior is "rent-seeking."

The world's largest wind-turbine manufacturer, Copenhagen Climate Council member Vestas, urges governments to invest heavily in the wind market. It sponsors CNN's "Climate in Peril" segment, increasing support for policies that would increase Vestas's earnings. A fellow council member, Mr. Gore's green investment firm Generation Investment Management, warns of a significant risk to the U.S. economy unless a price is quickly placed on carbon.

Even companies that are not heavily engaged in green business stand to gain. European energy companies made tens of billions of euros in the first years of the European Trading System when they received free carbon emission allocations. ...

U.S. companies and interest groups involved with climate change hired 2,430 lobbyists just last year, up 300% from five years ago. Fifty of the biggest U.S. electric utilities -- including Duke -- spent $51 million on lobbyists in just six months.

The massive transfer of wealth that many businesses seek is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy. Spain has been proclaimed a global example in providing financial aid to renewable energy companies to create green jobs. But research shows that each new job cost Spain 571,138 euros, with subsidies of more than one million euros required to create each new job in the uncompetitive wind industry. Moreover, the programs resulted in the destruction of nearly 110,000 jobs elsewhere in the economy, or 2.2 jobs for every job created."

Myten om de uregulerede markedskræfter

Jeg har dd. min faste klumme i Berlingske--denne gang om den p.t. ofte hørte påstand om, at vi lever i en verden af "laissez-faire" og "uregulerede markedskræfter".

Nogle forsvundne avisklummer om kapitalisme og den offentlige sektors størrelse ...

Berlingske Tidendes hjemmeside er desværre ikke altid helt, hvad den skal--og kan--være. Så der er nogle af mine forskellige indlæg i avisen, der aldrig er kommet med dér, og derfor komme de så her. Én klumme om, at størrelsen betyder noget--altså at det ikke er trivielt, om vi har en stor eller lille offentlig sektor. Og her er en anden om, at rygterne om kapitalismens snarlige undergang--også denne gang--er noget overdrevne.